Document Type

Article

Publication Date

7-2026

Department

College of Forest Resources and Environmental Science

Abstract

Warmer temperatures and erratic rainfall patterns are threatening global water availability. Irrigation is a key risk-mitigation strategy, helping sustain crop yields under climate stress. Limited research has examined farmers' likelihood of irrigating under climate change, or the effects of large-scale irrigation expansion on future water availability, largely due to challenges in acquiring field-level irrigation data. Using an integrated econometric-hydrologic modeling approach, we investigate how short- and long-run climatic conditions shape irrigation incentives and feasibility in Serbia—an increasingly water-stressed region—and how these incentives evolve under future climate scenarios. Our econometric model identifies when and where irrigation becomes a viable option under climate change. We then integrate these potentially irrigated fields into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+) to determine realized irrigation activity, irrigation water use, and the implications for future water availability. We find that farmers respond to both short- and long-term climate signals, with warmer and drier conditions strengthening irrigation incentives. By 2060, irrigation becomes a viable option for an additional 11% of fields under a “dry” future climate scenario and 3% under a “wet” scenario, compared to 1.4% of fields irrigating in the baseline period. This relatively modest expansion reflects binding infrastructure constraints: even though climate change strengthens incentives for irrigation, many fields remain unable to adapt. Our predicted irrigation expansion has meaningful consequences for water resources, exacerbating water balance deficits—particularly during dry years. Results demonstrate that climate-driven irrigation incentives and hydrological feedbacks must be jointly considered to ensure sustainable agricultural water management in the long run.

Publisher's Statement

© 2026 The Author(s). Publisher’s version of record: https://doi.org/10.1029/2025WR041530

Publication Title

Water Resources Research

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License

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