Assessing Landslide Risk and Susceptibility in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula: A Case Study of the 2003 Rockland Incident

Document Type

Conference Proceeding

Publication Date

1-1-2026

Abstract

Landslides are a significant natural hazard, often resulting in numerous fatalities and substantial economic damage each year. One of the largest landslides in the United States in 2003 happened in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan near the Military Hills roadside park on US Highway 45 in Rockland, Ontonagon County. The landslide led to one of the largest mass-wasting incidents of that year and obstructed the path of the Ontonagon River, causing a change in the river’s path. This region is popular for its significant snow precipitation and accumulation which is due to its distinct geographical location. The gradual melting of snow poses a considerable risk as it can saturate the soil through various means such as surface infiltration, the body of the slope, or intrusion from nearby rivers. Moreover, the existence of clayey soils, which inherently possess a low friction angle, further exacerbates the situation. The saturation of clayey soil significantly compromises its stability, making the slopes susceptible to landslides. In this study, the 2003 landslide and its path were modeled using ArcGIS software and LaharZ models by identifying hazard zones, assigning collapsed landslide soil volume, and adjusting the flow model. Furthermore, by considering soil properties and mechanical parameters such as soil cohesion, friction angle, soil unit weight, and stability factors (i.e., safety factor for slopes), the landslide susceptibility maps of the area for shallow landslides (similar to the 2003 slide) were generated and used to investigate the possibility of such landslides or their debris path damaging the US Highway 45. The analysis revealed a serious risk to the US Highway 45, highlighting the potential for a catastrophic disaster. Furthermore, various contributing factors and triggers to landslides in the region were investigated. By studying geological features, soil composition and stability, and area precipitation trends, an understanding of the region’s susceptibility to landslides was achieved.

Publication Title

Geo Congress 2026 Embankments Dams Slopes and Soil Erosion Selected Papers from Geo Congress 2026

ISBN

[9780784486733]

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