Flood risk mapping in an urbanized tropical river basin in India using MCDA-AHP: a post-storm event evaluation
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
12-1-2025
Abstract
Flooding is a persistent hazard in tropical regions of India, primarily driven by intense precipitation and further aggravated by anthropogenic activities. Despite ongoing efforts, a gap persists in the development of comprehensive risk models that integrate hazard, vulnerability, and exposure components at a watershed level. This research seeks to bridge that gap by implementing a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique, specifically the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), to generate a risk map for the tropical Meenachil River Basin (MRB), originating in the Western Ghats, southwest India. Nine conditioning factors (CFs) were evaluated to assess hazard, and the resulting hazard layer was integrated with vulnerability data and different exposure factors (EFs), such as built-up height, built-up surface, built-up volume, population, and total exposure, to produce a risk map. Validation of the hazard model utilizing the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve achieved an excellent Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.825, along with high accuracy (0.818), F1-score (0.802), precision (0.812), and recall (0.793). Approximately 11% of the MRB lies in a very high hazard zone and 1.51% in a very high risk zone. These results advocate for sustainable flood management by identifying key risk zones, thereby facilitating the implementation of focused site-specific mitigation strategies.
Publication Title
Smart Construction and Sustainable Cities
Recommended Citation
Ajin, R.,
Senan, C.,
Devi, B.,
Costache, R.,
Nagar, J.,
Rajaneesh, A.,
&
Sajinkumar, K.
(2025).
Flood risk mapping in an urbanized tropical river basin in India using MCDA-AHP: a post-storm event evaluation.
Smart Construction and Sustainable Cities,
3(1).
http://doi.org/10.1007/s44268-025-00053-x
Retrieved from: https://digitalcommons.mtu.edu/michigantech-p2/1924