Assessing theoretical conclusions with blinded inference to investigate a potential inference crisis

Authors

Jeffrey J. Starns, University of Massachusetts Amherst
Andrea M. Cataldo, University of Massachusetts Amherst
Caren M. Rotello, University of Massachusetts Amherst
Jeffrey Annis, Vanderbilt University
Andrew Aschenbrenner, Washington University in St. Louis
Arndt Bröder, University of Mannheim
Shane Mueller, Michigan Technological UniversityFollow
et. al.

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

9-17-2019

Department

Department of Cognitive and Learning Sciences

Abstract

Scientific advances across a range of disciplines hinge on the ability to make inferences about unobservable theoretical entities on the basis of empirical data patterns. Accurate inferences rely on both discovering valid, replicable data patterns and accurately interpreting those patterns in terms of their implications for theoretical constructs. The replication crisis in science has led to widespread efforts to improve the reliability of research findings, but comparatively little attention has been devoted to the validity of inferences based on those findings. Using an example from cognitive psychology, we demonstrate a blinded-inference paradigm for assessing the quality of theoretical inferences from data. Our results reveal substantial variability in experts’ judgments on the very same data, hinting at a possible inference crisis.

Publication Title

Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science

Recommended Citation

Starns, J. J., Cataldo, A. M., Rotello, C. M., Annis, J., Aschenbrenner, A., Bröder, A., Mueller, S., & et. al. (2019). Assessing theoretical conclusions with blinded inference to investigate a potential inference crisis. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 2(4), 335-349. http://doi.org/10.1177/2515245919869583
Retrieved from: https://digitalcommons.mtu.edu/michigantech-p/2600