Cold Season Performance of the NU-WRF Regional Climate Model in the Great Lakes Region

Authors

Michael Notaro, University of Wisconsin–Madison
Yafang Zhong, University of Wisconsin–Madison
Pengfei Xue, Michigan Technological UniversityFollow
Christa Peters-Lidard, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Carlos Cruz, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Eric Kemp, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Chenfu Huang, Michigan Technological UniversityFollow
et. al.

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

9-14-2021

Department

Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geospatial Engineering; Great Lakes Research Center

Abstract

As Earth’s largest collection of freshwater, the Laurentian Great Lakes have enormous ecological and socioeconomic value. Their basin has become a regional hotspot of climatic and limnological change, potentially threatening its vital natural resources. Consequentially, there is a need to assess the current state of climate models regarding their performance across the Great Lakes region and develop the next generation of high-resolution regional climate models to address complex limnological processes and lake–atmosphere interactions. In response to this need, the current paper focuses on the generation and analysis of a 20-member ensemble of 3-km National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) simulations for the 2014/15 cold season. The study aims to identify the model’s strengths and weaknesses; optimal configuration for the region; and the impacts of different physics parameterizations, coupling to a 1D lake model, time-variant lake-surface temperatures, and spectral nudging. Several key biases are identified in the cold-season simulations for the Great Lakes region, including an atmospheric cold bias that is amplified by coupling to a 1D lake model but diminished by applying the Community Atmosphere Model radiation scheme and Morrison microphysics scheme; an excess precipitation bias; anomalously early initiation of fall lake turnover and subsequent cold lake bias; excessive and overly persistent lake ice cover; and insufficient evaporation over Lakes Superior and Huron. The research team is currently addressing these key limitations by coupling NU-WRF to a 3D lake model in support of the next generation of regional climate models for the critical Great Lakes Basin.

Publication Title

Journal of Hydrometeorology

Recommended Citation

Notaro, M., Zhong, Y., Xue, P., Peters-Lidard, C., Cruz, C., Kemp, E., Huang, C., & et. al. (2021). Cold Season Performance of the NU-WRF Regional Climate Model in the Great Lakes Region. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22(9), 2423-2454. http://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0025.1
Retrieved from: https://digitalcommons.mtu.edu/michigantech-p/16299