Document Type

Article

Publication Date

12-14-2024

Department

Health Research Institute

Abstract

Due to their immense economic and recreational value, the monitoring of Great Lakes water quality is of utmost importance to the region. Historically, this has taken place through a combination of ship-based sampling, buoy measurements, and physical models. However, these approaches have spatial and temporal deficiencies which can be improved upon through satellite remote sensing. This study details a new approach for using long time series of satellite remote sensing data to identify historical and near real-time anomalies across a range of data products. Anomalies are traditionally detected as deviations from historical climatologies, typically assuming that there are no long-term trends in the historical data. However, if present, such trends could result in misclassifying ordinary events as anomalous or missing actual anomalies. The new anomaly detection method explicitly accounts for long-term trends and seasonal variability by first decomposing a 10-plus year data record of satellite remote sensing-derived Great Lakes water quality parameters into seasonal, trend, and remainder components. Anomalies were identified as differences between the observed water quality parameter from the model-derived expected value. Normalizing the anomalies to the mean and standard deviation of the full model remainders, the relative anomaly product can be used to compare deviations across parameters and regions. This approach can also be used to forecast the model into the future, allowing for the identification of anomalies in near real time. Multiple case studies are detailed, including examples of a harmful algal bloom in Lake Erie, a sediment plume in Saginaw Bay (Lake Huron), and a phytoplankton bloom in Lake Superior. This new approach would be best suited for use in a water quality dashboard, allowing users (e.g., water quality managers, the research community, and the public) to observe historical and near real-time anomalies.

Publisher's Statement

© 2024 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Publisher’s version of record: https://doi.org/10.3390/w16243602

Publication Title

Water (Switzerland)

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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