Predicting Metal Consumption: The Case of US Steel

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College of Business


This paper develops a general model that can be used to explain past trends in metal consumption and to make long-term forecasts of metal requirements. The model identifies four apparent determinants of consumption that are explained by underlying economic trends. This framework is applied to the case of US steel consumption over the 1963-83 period and the model explains 73% of the variation in consumption over that period. The underlying economic variables are then projected into the future to yield forecasts to the year 2010, indicating slow growth in the use of steel in the USA.

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© 1990

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