Modeling fecal coliform bacteria-II. Model development and application

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The episodic nature of their origin and the transience of the receiving water response make the modeling of fecal coliform bacteria contamination events particularly challenging. A two-layer mass balance model was developed to simulate spatial and temporal variability in fecal coliform bacteria concentrations in a polluted, urban lake. Independently validated submodels were used to estimate bacteria loads from tributary and point source discharges, to quantify mass transport and to determine losses due to sedimentation and death. The overall model was validated by successfully simulating spatial and temporal dynamics for dry weather conditions and two wet weather events. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the likelihood of violating public health standards is influenced by environmental conditions, e.g. light intensity and wind mixing. Model simulations are used to illustrate the impact of water quality management actions on bacteria levels at various locations in the lake. The general approach presented here and the techniques used to quantify model inputs may be of value in application to other systems. © 1993.

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Water Research