Measuring Systemic Risk of Switching Attacks Based on Cybersecurity Technologies in Substations

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Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering; Department of Mathematical Sciences


This paper describes the derivation of steady-state probabilities of the power communication infrastructure based on today's cybersecurity technologies. The elaboration of steady-state probabilities is established on (i) modified models developed such as password models, (ii) new models on digital relays representing the authentication mechanism, and (iii) models for honeypots/honeynet within a substation network. A generalized stochastic Petri net (GSPN) is utilized to formulate the detailed statuses and transitions of components embedded in a cyber-net. Comprehensive steady-state probabilities are quantitatively and qualitatively performed. The methodologies on how transition probabilities and rates are extracted from the network components and a conclusion of actuarial applications is discussed.

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© 1969-2012 IEEE. Publisher’s version of record: https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2020.2986452

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IEEE Transactions on Power Systems